Beşiktaş 2–1 Trabzonspor: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Trabzonspor

A. Batahov 65' (OG)

Rafa 53'

S. Banza 17'

2/15/2025

League #203 · Round 24Tüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Beşiktaş44%

×Draw24%

Trabzonspor32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchTrabzonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.34

Beşiktaş

1.61

Trabzonspor

1.34

Beşiktaş creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.66

creates per match

1.76

0.93

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.66

Trabzonspor

1.76

allows per match

Beşiktaş

0.93

Trabzonspor

1.56

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.46scores more than expected

finishing

Beşiktaş-0.16scores less

Trabzonspor+0.46scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Trabzonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

68%

Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor

76%

Draw or Trabzonspor

56%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

22%

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

80%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

48%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

22%

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

74%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

39%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

58%

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.93 · 12 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.66 + Trabzonspor defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Trabzonspor attack 1.76 + Beşiktaş defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

44%

level

24%

Trabzonspor scores more

32%

Beşiktaş at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

M. Rashica

Beşiktaş · M

7.6

Match Events

17'

S. Banza↳ E. Višća

44'

Emirhan Topçu

53'

Rafa↳ A. Masuaku

56'

Arthur Masuaku

61'

A. Hadžiahmetović← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

65'

A. BatahovOwn goal

66'

O. Zubkov← O. Tufan

66'

J. Lundstram← M. Cham

77'

S. Kılıçsoy← C. Immobile

78'

E. Muçi← M. Rashica

84'

T. Sanuç← Rafa

85'

87'

90+6'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeşiktaşTrabzonspor

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots6

0.89Expected Goals (xG)0.89

8Corners1

16Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots6

3On Target1

6Off Target2

3Blocked3

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

434Total Passes470

360Accurate Passes378

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

-0.49Goals Prevented-0.49

Discipline

16Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1