Beşiktaş 3–2 Trabzonspor: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Trabzonspor

Al Musrati 90+4'

S. Uçan 54'

R. Ghezzal 45+3' (pen)

N. Pépé 89'

P. Onuachu 13'

5/23/2024

Türkiye Kupası · FinalAtatürk Olimpiyat Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Beşiktaş43%

×Draw22%

Trabzonspor35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchTrabzonspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.76

Beşiktaş

1.95

Trabzonspor

1.76

Beşiktaş creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

2.28

creates per match

2.63

0.89

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Beşiktaş

2.28

Trabzonspor

2.63

allows per match

Beşiktaş

0.89

Trabzonspor

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Trabzonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Trabzonspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

65%

Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor

78%

Draw or Trabzonspor

57%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

24%

Trabzonspor wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

86%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

58%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

31%

Trabzonspor 1+ goals

83%

Trabzonspor 2+ goals

52%

Trabzonspor 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

55%

Trabzonspor (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Trabzonspor away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 2.28 + Trabzonspor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.95

Trabzonspor attack 2.63 + Beşiktaş defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

43%

level

22%

Trabzonspor scores more

35%

Beşiktaş at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beşiktaş will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

Al Musrati

Beşiktaş · M

8.0

Match Events

13'

P. Onuachu↳ E. Elmalı

45+3'

R. GhezzalPenalty

52'

Thomas Meunier

54'

S. Uçan↳ J. Muleka

55'

Trézéguet← T. Fountas

64'

M. Rashica← R. Ghezzal

68'

N. Pépé← B. Özdemir

75'

V. Aboubakar← J. Muleka

79'

83'

83'

89'

90+5'

90+7'

90+7'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeşiktaşTrabzonspor

Overview

53%Possession47%

23Total Shots13

7Corners6

12Fouls14

Shots

23Total Shots13

10On Target7

7Off Target4

6Blocked2

12Inside Box10

11Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

417Total Passes360

351Accurate Passes276

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2