Tottenham 4–3 Leeds: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Leeds

R. Bentancur 83', 81'

B. Davies 51'

H. Kane 25'

Rodrigo 76', 43'

C. Summerville 10'

11/12/2022

Premier League · Round 16Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Tottenham47%

×Draw24%

Leeds29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.23

Tottenham

1.65

Leeds

1.23

Tottenham creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 25 away

1.47

creates per match

1.17

1.30

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Leeds

1.17

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Leeds

1.82

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Leeds-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

71%

Tottenham or Leeds

76%

Draw or Leeds

53%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

25%

Leeds wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

81%

Tottenham 2+ goals

49%

Tottenham 3+ goals

23%

Leeds 1+ goals

71%

Leeds 2+ goals

35%

Leeds 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

62%

Leeds (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.82 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Leeds defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.65

Leeds attack 1.17 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tottenham scores more

47%

level

24%

Leeds scores more

29%

Tottenham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Rodrigo

Leeds · F

8.3

Match Events

10'

C. Summerville↳ B. Aaronson

25'

H. Kane

43'

Rodrigo↳ R. Kristensen

46'

S. Greenwood← W. Gnonto

49'

51'

57'

57'

57'

D. Sánchez← C. Lenglet

69'

Y. Bissouma← Richarlison

71'

76'

79'

81'

83'

R. Bentancur↳ D. Kulusevski

87'

Tyler Adams

87'

Tyler Adams

89'

Mateo Joseph← R. Kristensen

89'

J. Gelhardt← Rodrigo

90'

Lucas Moura← D. Kulusevski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamLeeds

Overview

55%Possession45%

14Total Shots12

9Corners2

8Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots12

8On Target5

3Off Target2

3Blocked5

11Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

545Total Passes464

450Accurate Passes366

83%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Premier League: Tottenham 4–3 Leeds

Tottenham beat Leeds 4-3 in Premier League on November 12, 2022.

Goals: C. Summerville (10'), H. Kane (25'), Rodrigo (43', 76'), B. Davies (51'), R. Bentancur (81', 83').

Tottenham controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Leeds — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Tottenham 4–3 Leeds