Leeds 1–2 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tottenham

N. Okafor 34'

M. Kudus 57'

M. Tel 23'

10/4/2025

Premier League · Round 7Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Leeds45%

×Draw25%

Tottenham30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.22

Leeds

1.56

Tottenham

1.22

Leeds creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 33 away

1.58

creates per match

1.12

1.32

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Leeds

1.58

Tottenham

1.12

allows per match

Leeds

1.32

Tottenham

1.55

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Leeds-0.06on par

Tottenham+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

70%

Leeds or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

55%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

23%

Tottenham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

79%

Leeds 2+ goals

46%

Leeds 3+ goals

21%

Tottenham 1+ goals

70%

Tottenham 2+ goals

34%

Tottenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

60%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.32 · 23 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.58 + Tottenham defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Leeds defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leeds scores more

45%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

30%

Leeds at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Mohammed Kudus

23'

M. Tel↳ M. Kudus

34'

41'

52'

57'

64'

64'

67'

J. Harrison← B. Aaronson

67'

A. Tanaka← A. Stach

73'

P. M. Sarr← M. Tel

74'

Richarlison← X. Simons

79'

L. Nmecha← G. Gudmundsson

79'

85'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsTottenham

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots9

1.68Expected Goals (xG)0.53

4Corners1

10Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots9

4On Target3

10Off Target4

2Blocked2

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

478Total Passes374

401Accurate Passes298

84%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.66Goals Prevented0.66

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Leeds vs Tottenham

Tottenham beat Leeds 2-1 in Premier League on October 4, 2025.

Goals: M. Tel (23'), N. Okafor (34'), M. Kudus (57').

Leeds controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds.

Leeds vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Leeds vs Tottenham