Leeds 1–4 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Tottenham

J. Harrison 67'

Lucas Moura 90+5'

H. Kane 69', 2'

Pedro Porro 47'

5/28/2023

Premier League · Round 38Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Leeds45%

×Draw25%

Tottenham30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.19

Leeds

1.51

Tottenham

1.19

Leeds creates 27% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 29 away

1.58

creates per match

1.05

1.32

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Leeds

1.58

Tottenham

1.05

allows per match

Leeds

1.32

Tottenham

1.44

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Leeds-0.06on par

Tottenham+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

70%

Leeds or Tottenham

75%

Draw or Tottenham

55%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

22%

Tottenham wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

78%

Leeds 2+ goals

44%

Leeds 3+ goals

19%

Tottenham 1+ goals

70%

Tottenham 2+ goals

33%

Tottenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

60%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.32 · 23 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.58 + Tottenham defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.51

Tottenham attack 1.05 + Leeds defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leeds scores more

45%

level

25%

Tottenham scores more

30%

Leeds at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Pedro Porro

Tottenham · M

8.6

Match Events

2'

H. Kane↳ Son Heung-Min

9'

14'

47'

56'

59'

Junior Firpo← M. Wöber

59'

B. Aaronson← P. Struijk

60'

G. Rutter← W. McKennie

67'

P. Sarr← D. Kulusevski

67'

J. Harrison↳ G. Rutter

69'

H. Kane↳ Pedro Porro

76'

Richarlison← Son Heung-Min

77'

M. Craig← Y. Bissouma

88'

W. Gnonto← J. Harrison

90+1'

G. Abbott← O. Skipp

90+1'

Lucas Moura← Pedro Porro

90+5'

Lucas Moura↳ P. Sarr

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsTottenham

Overview

52%Possession48%

19Total Shots11

1.50Expected Goals (xG)2.17

12Corners3

8Fouls5

Shots

19Total Shots11

2On Target7

7Off Target3

10Blocked1

14Inside Box10

5Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

441Total Passes437

341Accurate Passes341

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls5

3Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1

Premier League: Leeds 1–4 Tottenham

Tottenham beat Leeds 4-1 in Premier League on May 28, 2023.

Goals: H. Kane (2', 69'), Pedro Porro (47'), J. Harrison (67'), Lucas Moura (90+5').

Leeds controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.

Leeds vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Leeds 1–4 Tottenham