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Leeds vs Tottenham — Premier League 2026

Leeds
Leeds
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Tottenham
Tottenham
Son Heung-Min 85'
H. Kane 27'
D. Kulusevski 15'
M. Doherty 10'
2/26/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Leeds46%
×Draw25%
Tottenham29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leeds
1.60
Tottenham
1.22

Leeds creates 31% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 34 away

creates per match

Leeds
1.59
Tottenham
1.12

allows per match

Leeds
1.31
Tottenham
1.62

finishing

Leeds-0.13scores less
Tottenham+0.29scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Tottenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Leeds or draw
71%
Leeds or Tottenham
75%
Draw or Tottenham
54%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+
24%
Tottenham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals
80%
Leeds 2+ goals
47%
Leeds 3+ goals
22%
Tottenham 1+ goals
70%
Tottenham 2+ goals
34%
Tottenham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)
61%
Tottenham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.59 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tottenham attack 1.12 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leeds scores more
46%
level
25%
Tottenham scores more
29%

Leeds at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
H. KaneTottenhamTottenham · F
9.2

Match Events

10'
M. Doherty↳ R. Sessegnon
15'
D. Kulusevski↳ M. Doherty
27'
H. Kane↳ P. Højbjerg
46'
M. Klich← P. Struijk
46'
Rodrigo← J. Harrison
48'
Ryan Sessegnon
52'
Mateusz Klich
53'
Stuart Dallas
54'
Junior Firpo
77'
Rodrigo
78'
J. Shackleton← Junior Firpo
78'
Emerson← R. Sessegnon
78'
S. Bergwijn← D. Kulusevski
85'
Son Heung-Min↳ H. Kane
87'
D. Scarlett← Son Heung-Min
90'
Ben Davies

Possession

50%Leeds

Shots

19Leeds

Pass accuracy

49%Leeds

Statistics

LeedsTottenham
Overview
50%Possession50%
19Total Shots15
3Corners6
16Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots15
3On Target11
10Off Target2
6Blocked2
12Inside Box13
7Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
449Total Passes474
387Accurate Passes418
86%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls11
4Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Premier League: Leeds 0–4 Tottenham

Tottenham beat Leeds 4-0 in Premier League on February 26, 2022.

Goals: M. Doherty (10'), D. Kulusevski (15'), H. Kane (27'), Son Heung-Min (85').

Leeds controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 15.

The match was played at Elland Road in Leeds, West Yorkshire.