Tottenham Hotspur W 2–1 Aston Villa W

Tottenham Hotspur W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aston Villa W

O. Holdt 90'

B. England 85'

K. Hanson 84'

12/7/2025

FA WSL · Round 10Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W41%

×Draw25%

Aston Villa W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tottenham Hotspur WExpected goals in this matchAston Villa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.33

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.48

Aston Villa W

1.33

Tottenham Hotspur W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 66 away

1.13

creates per match

1.27

1.40

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.13

Aston Villa W

1.27

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W

1.40

Aston Villa W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Aston Villa W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw

66%

Tottenham Hotspur W or Aston Villa W

75%

Draw or Aston Villa W

59%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+

20%

Aston Villa W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals

77%

Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals

43%

Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals

19%

Aston Villa W 1+ goals

74%

Aston Villa W 2+ goals

38%

Aston Villa W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)

55%

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 70 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.13 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more

41%

level

25%

Aston Villa W scores more

34%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

K. Hanson

Aston Villa W · F

8.0

Match Events

28'

Oceane Deslandes

29'

Clare Hunt

57'

M. Hijikata← E. Salmon

65'

Oceane Deslandes

65'

Oceane Deslandes

71'

M. Thomas← J. Naz

76'

A. Dennis← A. Neville

77'

S. Mayling← R. Daly

83'

P. Tomas← C. Grant

84'

K. Hanson↳ R. Maltby

85'

L. Gunning Williams← M. Vinberg

85'

B. England↳ A. Nilden

90'

O. Holdt↳ D. Spence

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamAston

Overview

58%Possession42%

14Total Shots8

10Corners5

7Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots8

3On Target4

7Off Target3

4Blocked1

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

434Total Passes323

354Accurate Passes248

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3