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Aston Villa W vs Tottenham Hotspur W — FA WSL 2018

Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
R. Daly 88'
A. Leon 78'
B. England 90+6'
E. Summanen 23' (pen)
9/29/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 2Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Aston Villa W36%
×Draw23%
Tottenham Hotspur W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa W
1.60
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 74 away

creates per match

Aston Villa W
1.18
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.32

allows per match

Aston Villa W
2.11
Tottenham Hotspur W
2.03

finishing

Aston Villa W+0.00on par
Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa W ↓

Tottenham Hotspur W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Aston Villa W or draw
59%
Aston Villa W or Tottenham Hotspur W
77%
Draw or Tottenham Hotspur W
64%

Winning margin

Aston Villa W wins by 2+
18%
Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Aston Villa W 1+ goals
80%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
47%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
22%
Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
82%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
51%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
47%
Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

Tottenham Hotspur W away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.03 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa W attack 1.18 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.32 + Aston Villa W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aston Villa W scores more
36%
level
23%
Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
41%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
R. DalyAston Villa WAston Villa W · F
8.7

Match Events

23'
E. SummanenPenalty
55'
B. England← J. Naz
67'
A. Leon← K. Hanson
67'
K. Robinson← K. Dali
67'
L. Staniforth← M. Kearns
75'
Eveliina Summanen
77'
A. Csiki← H. Raso
77'
O. Ahtinen← D. Spence
78'
A. Leon↳ R. Daly
80'
E. Salmon← C. Grant
86'
M. Vinberg← Maite Oroz
88'
R. Daly↳ L. Parker
90+2'
M. Taylor← R. Daly
90+6'
B. England↳ A. Nildén

Possession

53%Aston

Shots

17Aston

Pass accuracy

51%Aston

Statistics

AstonTottenham
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots4
8Corners1
7Fouls6
Shots
17Total Shots4
6On Target2
7Off Target2
4Blocked0
12Inside Box2
5Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
525Total Passes502
439Accurate Passes407
84%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls6
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Aston Villa W vs Tottenham Hotspur W

Aston Villa W and Tottenham Hotspur W drew 2-2 in FA WSL on September 29, 2024.

Goals: E. Summanen (23' pen), A. Leon (78'), R. Daly (88'), B. England (90+6').

Aston Villa W controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.