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Aston Villa W vs Tottenham Hotspur W — FA WSL 2018

Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
FT
3 – 7
HT: 1 – 3
Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
K. Hanson 80', 16'
O. Jean-Francois 68'
J. Blakstad 85'
C. Tandberg 82', 69'
M. Hamano 72'
O. Holdt 26'
B. England 19'
S. Gaupset 10'
2/15/2026FA WSLFA WSL · Round 16Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Aston Villa W36%
×Draw23%
Tottenham Hotspur W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aston Villa W
1.60
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 74 away

creates per match

Aston Villa W
1.18
Tottenham Hotspur W
1.32

allows per match

Aston Villa W
2.11
Tottenham Hotspur W
2.03

finishing

Aston Villa W+0.00on par
Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa W ↓

Tottenham Hotspur W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Aston Villa W or draw
59%
Aston Villa W or Tottenham Hotspur W
77%
Draw or Tottenham Hotspur W
64%

Winning margin

Aston Villa W wins by 2+
18%
Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Aston Villa W 1+ goals
80%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
47%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
22%
Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
82%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
51%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
47%
Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

Tottenham Hotspur W away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.03 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa W attack 1.18 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.60

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.32 + Aston Villa W defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Aston Villa W scores more
36%
level
23%
Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
41%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
K. HansonAston Villa WAston Villa W · F
8.9

Match Events

10'
S. Gaupset↳ J. Blakstad
16'
K. Hanson↳ N. Maritz
19'
B. England↳ O. Holdt
26'
O. Holdt
34'
Lucy Staniforth
45+4'
Amanda Nildén
46'
R. Maltby← L. Staniforth
67'
M. Vinberg← A. Nilden
67'
C. Tandberg← O. Holdt
68'
O. Jean-Francois
69'
C. Tandberg
71'
E. Salmon← C. Grant
72'
L. Kendall← M. Taylor
72'
M. Hamano↳ S. Gaupset
80'
K. Hanson↳ L. Wilms
82'
C. Tandberg↳ M. Hamano
85'
O. Ahtinen← B. England
85'
J. Blakstad↳ M. Vinberg
86'
M. Bartrip← T. Koga
86'
L. Gunning Williams← M. Hamano
90+5'
Clare Hunt

Possession

46%Aston

Shots

10Aston

Pass accuracy

48%Aston

Statistics

AstonTottenham
Overview
46%Possession54%
10Total Shots27
1Corners3
3Fouls4
Shots
10Total Shots27
4On Target12
4Off Target8
2Blocked7
7Inside Box19
3Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
454Total Passes542
369Accurate Passes473
81%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
3Fouls4
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Aston Villa W vs Tottenham Hotspur W

Tottenham Hotspur W beat Aston Villa W 7-3 in FA WSL on February 15, 2026.

Goals: S. Gaupset (10'), K. Hanson (16', 80'), B. England (19'), O. Holdt (26'), O. Jean-Francois (68'), C. Tandberg (69', 82'), M. Hamano (72'), J. Blakstad (85').

Tottenham Hotspur W controlled possession (54%) and registered 27 shots to 10.

The match was played at Bescot Stadium in Walsall.