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Tottenham Hotspur W vs Aston Villa W — FA WSL 2018

Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Aston Villa W
Aston Villa W
2/18/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 14Gaughan Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W40%
×Draw25%
Aston Villa W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.48
Aston Villa W
1.35

Tottenham Hotspur W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.14
Aston Villa W
1.27

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.43
Aston Villa W
1.82

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par
Aston Villa W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Aston Villa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw
65%
Tottenham Hotspur W or Aston Villa W
75%
Draw or Aston Villa W
60%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
19%
Aston Villa W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
77%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
43%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
19%
Aston Villa W 1+ goals
74%
Aston Villa W 2+ goals
39%
Aston Villa W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
54%
Aston Villa W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

Aston Villa W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.14 + Aston Villa W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Aston Villa W attack 1.27 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
40%
level
25%
Aston Villa W scores more
35%

Tottenham Hotspur W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Tottenham Hotspur W 1–2 Aston Villa W

Aston Villa W beat Tottenham Hotspur W 2-1 in FA WSL on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Gaughan Group Stadium in London.