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Tondela vs Moreirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Tondela
Tondela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Moreirense
Moreirense
Marcelo Alves 25'
K. Kodisang 89'
11/14/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 13Estádio João Cardoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tondela31%
×Draw26%
Moreirense42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tondela
1.17
Moreirense
1.40

Moreirense creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tondela
1.33
Moreirense
1.65

allows per match

Tondela
1.16
Moreirense
1.00

finishing

Tondela+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tondela ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tondela or draw
58%
Tondela or Moreirense
74%
Draw or Moreirense
69%

Winning margin

Tondela wins by 2+
13%
Moreirense wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tondela 1+ goals
69%
Tondela 2+ goals
33%
Tondela 3+ goals
11%
Moreirense 1+ goals
75%
Moreirense 2+ goals
41%
Moreirense 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tondela (draw refunded)
43%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tondela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.16 · 51 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tondela attack 1.33 + Moreirense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Moreirense attack 1.65 + Tondela defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tondela scores more
31%
level
26%
Moreirense scores more
42%

Moreirense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Jota Gonçalves
23'
Telmo Arcanjo
25'
Marcelo Alves
27'
Rafael Santos
46'
Lucas Freitas← Rafael Santos
46'
L. Ofori← Sori Mané
50'
Pedro Augusto
60'
João Camacho← Madson
60'
Platiny← Pedro Aparício
69'
Alan← David Bruno
79'
Alan
80'
Bruno Santos← Telmo Arcanjo
85'
M. Lacava← Rafael Barbosa
89'
K. Kodisang
90+1'
Bruno Miguel Vicente dos Santos
90+6'
João Camacho
90+1'
Rúben Fonseca← Jota Gonçalves

Shots

12Tondela

Statistics

TondelaMoreirense
Overview
12Total Shots12
6Corners5
15Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots12
3On Target3
7Off Target6
2Blocked3
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls15
4Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0

Segunda Liga: Tondela 1–1 Moreirense

Tondela and Moreirense drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on November 14, 2022.

Goals: Marcelo Alves (25'), K. Kodisang (89').

The match was played at Estádio João Cardoso in Tondela.