Moreirense 2–0 Tondela: Result & Stats

Moreirense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Tondela

K. Mirallas 45+2'

Rafael Martins 40'

4/16/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 30Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Moreirense37%

×Draw27%

Tondela36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoreirenseExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

Moreirense

1.27

Tondela

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 12 away

0.83

creates per match

1.13

1.32

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Moreirense

0.83

Tondela

1.13

allows per match

Moreirense

1.32

Tondela

1.71

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Moreirense+0.35scores more

Tondela-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreirense ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Moreirense or draw

64%

Moreirense or Tondela

73%

Draw or Tondela

63%

Winning margin

Moreirense wins by 2+

16%

Tondela wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Moreirense 1+ goals

72%

Moreirense 2+ goals

36%

Moreirense 3+ goals

14%

Tondela 1+ goals

71%

Tondela 2+ goals

35%

Tondela 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Moreirense (draw refunded)

51%

Tondela (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreirense at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreirense attack 0.83 + Tondela defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tondela attack 1.13 + Moreirense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Moreirense scores more

37%

level

27%

Tondela scores more

36%

Moreirense at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Derik Lacerda

Moreirense · F

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Yan Santos

12'

Derik Lacerda← Yan

40'

Rafael Martins

45+2'

K. Mirallas↳ Derik Lacerda

46'

João Pedro← Pedro Augusto

50'

Rafael Martins

59'

João Pedro

60'

Pedro Amador← Rafael Martins

60'

Walterson← K. Mirallas

61'

R. Dadaşov← Rafael Barbosa

64'

Mateus Pasinato

66'

Neto Borges

67'

J. Boselli← Neto Borges

72'

I. Camará← Sori Mané

72'

Matheus Silva← Jefferson

74'

Gonçalo Franco

76'

Manu

78'

Eduardo Quaresma← Manu Hernando

78'

M. Lacava← Daniel dos Anjos

84'

88'

90+3'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoreirenseTondela

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots3

4Corners1

19Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots3

3On Target1

7Off Target0

2Blocked2

8Inside Box2

4Outside Box1

Passing

39%Possession61%

308Total Passes496

230Accurate Passes405

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls15

6Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2