Moreirense vs Tondela — Segunda Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Moreirense53%
Tondela25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Moreirense creates 50% more chances
Season form · 17 home / 51 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over63
- Under37
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Moreirense ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Moreirense at home — creates 2.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches
Tondela away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Moreirense attack 2.88 + Tondela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.97
Tondela attack 1.39 + Moreirense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Moreirense at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Maritimo
Academico Viseu
Torreense
FC Porto B
Vizela
União de Leiria
Leixoes
Feirense
Chaves
Benfica B
Felgueiras 1932
Farense
Lusitânia Lourosa
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Portimonense
Pacos Ferreira
Oliveirense
CF Os BelenensesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Statistics
Moreirense host Tondela on Saturday, 29 April 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the Segunda Liga 2018/2019 season.
Segunda Liga: Moreirense 2–1 Tondela
Moreirense beat Tondela 2-1 in Segunda Liga on April 29, 2023.
Goals: Bruno Santos (29'), André Luís (47'), Platiny (90+2').
Moreirense controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 8.
The match was played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Cónegos.