Toluca 0–1 CF Pachuca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Toluca

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CF Pachuca

5/4/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Nemesio Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Toluca54%

×Draw23%

CF Pachuca23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TolucaExpected goals in this matchCF Pachuca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.08

Toluca

1.81

CF Pachuca

1.08

Toluca creates 68% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

2.35

creates per match

1.26

0.91

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Toluca

2.35

CF Pachuca

1.26

allows per match

Toluca

0.91

CF Pachuca

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

CF Pachuca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Toluca or draw

77%

Toluca or CF Pachuca

77%

Draw or CF Pachuca

46%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+

31%

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals

84%

Toluca 2+ goals

54%

Toluca 3+ goals

27%

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

66%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

29%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)

71%

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.35 + CF Pachuca defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.81

CF Pachuca attack 1.26 + Toluca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Toluca scores more

54%

level

23%

CF Pachuca scores more

23%

Toluca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff