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Toluca vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
Paulinho 25'
J. Gallardo 10'
E. Valencia 54' (pen), 45'
10/27/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Toluca54%
×Draw22%
CF Pachuca24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.93
CF Pachuca
1.22

Toluca creates 58% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 29 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.38
CF Pachuca
1.48

allows per match

Toluca
0.96
CF Pachuca
1.48

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
76%
Toluca or CF Pachuca
78%
Draw or CF Pachuca
46%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
31%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
85%
Toluca 2+ goals
57%
Toluca 3+ goals
30%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
70%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
34%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
69%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.38 + CF Pachuca defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.93

CF Pachuca attack 1.48 + Toluca defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Toluca scores more
54%
level
22%
CF Pachuca scores more
24%

Toluca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. VegaTolucaToluca · M
8.2

Match Events

10'
J. Gallardo↳ J. Angulo
25'
Paulinho↳ A. Vega
28'
Jesús Gallardo
45'
E. Valencia↳ V. Guzman
48'
Alan Bautista
54'
E. ValenciaPenalty
57'
Paulinho
58'
Alexis Vega
58'
Sergio Barreto
58'
C. Sanchez← W. Carvalho
66'
E. del Villar← N. Castro
72'
I. Luna← G. Togni
75'
R. Morales← A. Vega
76'
Alan Bautista
82'
H. Herrera← F. Pereira
83'
J. Cadiz← E. Valencia
85'
Carlos Sánchez
90+7'
Carlos Moreno

Possession

59%Toluca

Shots

20Toluca

Pass accuracy

52%Toluca

Statistics

TolucaCF
Overview
59%Possession41%
20Total Shots16
6Corners3
11Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots16
4On Target6
11Off Target8
5Blocked2
9Inside Box5
11Outside Box11
Passing
59%Possession41%
467Total Passes336
414Accurate Passes279
89%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls11
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Toluca vs CF Pachuca

Toluca and CF Pachuca drew 2-2 in Liga MX on October 27, 2025.

Goals: J. Gallardo (10'), Paulinho (25'), E. Valencia (45', 54' pen).

Toluca controlled possession (59%) and registered 20 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca.