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Toluca vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Toluca
Toluca
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
A. Vega 45+3'
Jesús Ricardo Angulo 38', 13'
P. Pedraza 86'
Pau López 62' (OG)
3/29/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Nemesio Díez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Toluca55%
×Draw22%
CF Pachuca23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
1.92
CF Pachuca
1.15

Toluca creates 67% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 38 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.38
CF Pachuca
1.34

allows per match

Toluca
0.96
CF Pachuca
1.47

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
77%
Toluca or CF Pachuca
78%
Draw or CF Pachuca
45%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
32%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
85%
Toluca 2+ goals
57%
Toluca 3+ goals
30%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
68%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
32%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
71%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.38, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.38 + CF Pachuca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.92

CF Pachuca attack 1.34 + Toluca defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Toluca scores more
55%
level
22%
CF Pachuca scores more
23%

Toluca at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
A. VegaTolucaToluca · M
10.0

Match Events

9'
Luís Rodríguez
13'
Jesús Ricardo Angulo↳ A. Vega
38'
Jesús Ricardo Angulo↳ J. Gallardo
45+3'
A. Vega↳ J. Gallardo
46'
O. Idrissi← S. Hernández
46'
P. Pedraza← S. Homenchenko
46'
J. Sigala← O. González
54'
Marcel Ruíz
55'
Pau López
62'
Pau LópezOwn goal
64'
I. Violante← Jesús Ricardo Angulo
66'
C. Sánchez← L. Rodríguez
69'
A. Bautista← John Kennedy
72'
Helinho← J. Domínguez
81'
Luan← D. Barbosa
82'
V. Arteaga← Franco Romero
83'
Victor Arteaga
86'
P. Pedraza↳ O. Idrissi

Possession

51%Toluca

Shots

17Toluca

Pass accuracy

49%Toluca

Statistics

TolucaCF
Overview
51%Possession49%
17Total Shots12
4Corners1
12Fouls6
Shots
17Total Shots12
9On Target2
6Off Target8
2Blocked2
12Inside Box6
5Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
516Total Passes485
430Accurate Passes414
83%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls6
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Toluca vs CF Pachuca

Toluca beat CF Pachuca 3-2 in Liga MX on March 29, 2025.

Goals: Jesús Ricardo Angulo (13', 38'), A. Vega (45+3'), Pau López (62' o.g.), P. Pedraza (86').

Toluca controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Díez in Toluca de Lerdo.