CF Pachuca 2–0 Toluca: Result & Stats | Liga MX

CF Pachuca

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Toluca

Kenedy 48'

E. Valencia 10' (pen)

5/10/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

CF Pachuca38%

×Draw26%

Toluca36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchToluca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.29

CF Pachuca

1.34

Toluca

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 23 away

1.68

creates per match

1.48

1.10

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.68

Toluca

1.48

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.10

Toluca

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Toluca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

64%

CF Pachuca or Toluca

74%

Draw or Toluca

62%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

17%

Toluca wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

74%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

39%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

15%

Toluca 1+ goals

72%

Toluca 2+ goals

37%

Toluca 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

52%

Toluca (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.68 + Toluca defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Toluca attack 1.48 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

38%

level

26%

Toluca scores more

36%

CF Pachuca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Kenedy

CF Pachuca · M

7.7

Match Events

10'

E. ValenciaPenalty

13'

Oussama Idrissi

46'

A. Dominguez← O. Idrissi

46'

F. Rossi← S. Simon

48'

Kenedy↳ A. Dominguez

56'

Helinho← N. Castro

56'

A. Briseno← Bruno Mendez

56'

J. Angulo← M. Ruiz

60'

Sergio Barreto

63'

S. Cordova←

68'

S. Rondon← E. Valencia

68'

A. Bautista← E. Montiel

80'

L. Quinones← Kenedy

86'

S. Rodriguez← V. Guzman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFToluca

Overview

35%Possession65%

13Total Shots17

1.72Expected Goals (xG)0.69

1Corners6

9Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots17

4On Target3

4Off Target11

5Blocked3

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box12

Passing

35%Possession65%

265Total Passes488

186Accurate Passes405

70%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.66Goals Prevented-0.66

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2