Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tigres UANL vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Necaxa
Necaxa
D. Lainez 88'
A. Correa 63'
J. Brunetta 45', 36', 24'
R. Monreal 72'
D. Cambindo 45', 18'
10/18/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Tigres UANL53%
×Draw23%
Necaxa23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.77
Necaxa
1.09

Tigres UANL creates 62% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 139 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.82
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
77%
Tigres UANL or Necaxa
77%
Draw or Necaxa
47%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
30%
Necaxa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
83%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
53%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
26%
Necaxa 1+ goals
66%
Necaxa 2+ goals
30%
Necaxa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
69%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 159 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.82 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
53%
level
23%
Necaxa scores more
23%

Tigres UANL at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. BrunettaTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
10.0

Match Events

16'
Kevin Rosero
18'
D. Cambindo↳ T. Badaloni
24'
J. Brunetta↳ A. Correa
36'
J. Brunetta
45'
D. Cambindo↳ A. Palavecino
45'
J. Brunetta↳ O. Herrera
46'
F. Gorriaran← A. Gignac
63'
A. Correa↳ D. A. Sanchez Guevara
64'
D. Lainez← O. Herrera
66'
P. Perez← J. Rojas
66'
R. Monreal← K. Rosero
72'
A. Andrade← D. De Buen
72'
R. Cortez← T. Badaloni
72'
R. Monreal↳ D. Cambindo
75'
Rogelio Cortéz Pineda
79'
Alejandro Andrade
80'
Jesús Angulo
88'
D. Lainez↳ D. A. Sanchez Guevara
89'
J. Vigon← J. Brunetta
89'
N. Ibanez← A. Correa
89'
R. Sanchez← F. Rossano
90+3'
Diego Lainez
90+3'
Cristian Calderón
90'
Diber Cambindo

Possession

56%Tigres

Shots

19Tigres

Pass accuracy

52%Tigres

Statistics

TigresNecaxa
Overview
56%Possession44%
19Total Shots14
6Corners4
19Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots14
9On Target6
4Off Target5
6Blocked3
10Inside Box7
9Outside Box7
Passing
56%Possession44%
466Total Passes369
396Accurate Passes292
85%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls14
2Yellow Cards5

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 5–3 Necaxa

Tigres UANL beat Necaxa 5-3 in Liga MX on October 18, 2025.

Goals: D. Cambindo (18', 45'), J. Brunetta (24', 36', 45'), A. Correa (63'), R. Monreal (72'), D. Lainez (88').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (56%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in Monterrey.