Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Necaxa vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
T. Badaloni 34'
A. Correa 90'
4/18/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa36%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.25
Tigres UANL
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 155 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Tigres UANL
1.26

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Tigres UANL
1.14

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
63%
Necaxa or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
64%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
16%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
71%
Necaxa 2+ goals
36%
Necaxa 3+ goals
13%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
72%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
37%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
49%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.14 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Tigres UANL defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tigres UANL attack 1.26 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more
36%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
37%

Tigres UANL at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
F. GorriaranTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
7.9

Match Events

34'
T. Badaloni↳ D. Leyva
43'
Danny Leyva
46'
A. Correa← Joaquim
55'
K. Rosero← A. E. Almendra
56'
D. Lainez← M. Flores
67'
D. A. Sanchez Guevara← F. Reyes
67'
R. Aguirre← C. Araujo
76'
F. Rossano← J. Ruiz
76'
J. Angulo← O. Herrera
82'
Ricardo Monreal
82'
Rodrigo Aguirre
84'
R. Cortez← R. Monreal
84'
E. Lara← F. Mendez
90'
A. Correa↳ R. Aguirre

Possession

27%Necaxa

Shots

7Necaxa

Pass accuracy

44%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaTigres
Overview
27%Possession73%
7Total Shots17
0.71Expected Goals (xG)1.20
0Corners12
16Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots17
2On Target5
4Off Target6
1Blocked6
4Inside Box7
3Outside Box10
Passing
27%Possession73%
247Total Passes630
174Accurate Passes562
70%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-0.02Goals Prevented-0.02
Discipline
16Fouls10
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Tigres UANL

Necaxa and Tigres UANL drew 1-1 in Liga MX on April 18, 2026.

Goals: T. Badaloni (34'), A. Correa (90').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (73%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes.