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Necaxa vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2026

Necaxa
Necaxa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
A. Palavecino 82'
J. Garza 90+4'
J. Brunetta 53'
3/2/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Necaxa36%
×Draw27%
Tigres UANL37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Necaxa
1.25
Tigres UANL
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 155 away

creates per match

Necaxa
1.36
Tigres UANL
1.26

allows per match

Necaxa
1.30
Tigres UANL
1.14

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw
63%
Necaxa or Tigres UANL
73%
Draw or Tigres UANL
64%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+
16%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals
71%
Necaxa 2+ goals
36%
Necaxa 3+ goals
13%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
72%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
37%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)
49%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 137 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.14 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + Tigres UANL defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tigres UANL attack 1.26 + Necaxa defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Necaxa scores more
36%
level
27%
Tigres UANL scores more
37%

Tigres UANL at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
U. AntunaTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
8.0

Match Events

23'
J. Paradela
53'
J. Brunetta↳ U. Antuna
67'
P. Pérez← J. Rojas
67'
R. Sandoval← A. Mayorga
67'
A. Oliveros← J. Alcántar
73'
S. Córdova← U. Antuna
73'
J. Vigón← B. Parra
73'
R. Fulgencio← M. Flores
76'
E. Lara
80'
T. Badaloni← D. Cambindo
80'
R. Monreal← J. Rodríguez
82'
A. Palavecino↳ J. Paradela
90+14'
N. Guzman
90+4'
J. Garza↳ Jesús Alberto Angulo

Possession

45%Necaxa

Shots

13Necaxa

Pass accuracy

49%Necaxa

Statistics

NecaxaTigres
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots16
5Corners6
17Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots16
4On Target6
5Off Target8
4Blocked2
6Inside Box9
7Outside Box7
Passing
45%Possession55%
330Total Passes409
255Accurate Passes331
77%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Necaxa vs Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL beat Necaxa 2-1 in Liga MX on March 2, 2025.

Goals: J. Brunetta (53'), A. Palavecino (82'), J. Garza (90+4').

Tigres UANL controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Victoria in Aguascalientes.