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Tigres UANL vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
A. Mayorga 90+7' (OG)
J. Brunetta 51'
T. Badaloni 86'
A. Palavecino 63'
5/12/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Tigres UANL53%
×Draw23%
Necaxa23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.77
Necaxa
1.09

Tigres UANL creates 62% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 139 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.82
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
77%
Tigres UANL or Necaxa
77%
Draw or Necaxa
47%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
30%
Necaxa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
83%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
53%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
26%
Necaxa 1+ goals
66%
Necaxa 2+ goals
30%
Necaxa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
69%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 159 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.82 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
53%
level
23%
Necaxa scores more
23%

Tigres UANL at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. BrunettaTigres UANLTigres UANL · M
8.3

Match Events

51'
J. Brunetta↳ D. Lainez
55'
P. Pérez← D. de Buen
63'
A. Palavecino↳ J. Paradela
73'
T. Badaloni← D. Cambindo
74'
R. Monreal← J. Rojas
79'
V. Loroña← D. Lainez
84'
R. Cortéz← P. Pérez
84'
A. Andrade← J. Rodríguez
86'
T. Badaloni↳ E. Lara
88'
M. Flores← J. Aquino
88'
S. Córdova← Rômulo
90+5'
Fernando Gorriarán
90+17'
Alejandro Andrade
90+11'
Ezequiel UnsaínGoal confirmed
90+16'
D. Reyes← F. Gorriarán
90+7'
A. MayorgaOwn goal

Possession

53%Tigres

Shots

21Tigres

Pass accuracy

50%Tigres

Statistics

TigresNecaxa
Overview
53%Possession47%
21Total Shots18
5Corners8
12Fouls16
Shots
21Total Shots18
7On Target7
6Off Target5
8Blocked6
15Inside Box12
6Outside Box6
Passing
53%Possession47%
333Total Passes295
244Accurate Passes218
73%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls16
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs Necaxa

Tigres UANL and Necaxa drew 2-2 in Liga MX on May 12, 2025.

Goals: J. Brunetta (51'), A. Palavecino (63'), T. Badaloni (86'), A. Mayorga (90+7' o.g.).

Tigres UANL controlled possession (53%) and registered 21 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.