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Tigres UANL vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
A. Gignac 19' (pen)
7/7/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Tigres UANL53%
×Draw23%
Necaxa23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.77
Necaxa
1.09

Tigres UANL creates 62% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 139 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.82
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
77%
Tigres UANL or Necaxa
77%
Draw or Necaxa
47%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
30%
Necaxa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
83%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
53%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
26%
Necaxa 1+ goals
66%
Necaxa 2+ goals
30%
Necaxa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
69%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 159 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.82 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
53%
level
23%
Necaxa scores more
23%

Tigres UANL at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. AquinoTigres UANLTigres UANL · D
8.5

Match Events

19'
A. GignacPenalty
46'
K. Rosero← R. Monreal
62'
N. Ibáñez← A. Gignac
62'
M. Flores← S. Córdova
70'
D. Gómez← A. Palavecino
70'
R. Sandoval← A. Mayorga
76'
O. Herrera← L. Quiñones
81'
A. Montes← E. Martínez
81'
B. Casas← F. Arce
85'
J. Vigón← J. Brunetta
85'
J. Purata← Rafael Carioca
86'
B. Casas

Possession

57%Tigres

Shots

16Tigres

Pass accuracy

52%Tigres

Statistics

TigresNecaxa
Overview
57%Possession43%
16Total Shots10
7Corners5
8Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots10
4On Target3
8Off Target5
4Blocked2
7Inside Box7
9Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
516Total Passes390
427Accurate Passes304
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs Necaxa

Tigres UANL beat Necaxa 1-0 in Liga MX on July 7, 2024.

Goals: A. Gignac (19' pen).

Tigres UANL controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario in San Nicolás de los Garza.