Tigres UANL 5–2 Necaxa: Result & Stats | Liga MX

Tigres UANL

FT

5 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Necaxa

M. Flores 69', 62', 59'

O. Herrera 54'

A. Gignac 51'

A. Andrade 73'

B. Samudio 33'

4/21/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 16Estadio Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Tigres UANL53%

×Draw23%

Necaxa23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tigres UANLExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.09

Tigres UANL

1.77

Necaxa

1.09

Tigres UANL creates 62% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 139 away

1.82

creates per match

1.27

0.91

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Tigres UANL

1.82

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

Tigres UANL

0.91

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw

77%

Tigres UANL or Necaxa

77%

Draw or Necaxa

47%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+

30%

Necaxa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals

83%

Tigres UANL 2+ goals

53%

Tigres UANL 3+ goals

26%

Necaxa 1+ goals

66%

Necaxa 2+ goals

30%

Necaxa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)

69%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 159 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.82 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tigres UANL scores more

53%

level

23%

Necaxa scores more

23%

Tigres UANL at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Flores

Tigres UANL · M

9.6

Match Events

20'

Eduardo Tercero

30'

Braian Samudio

33'

B. Samudio↳ J. Paradela

51'

A. Gignac↳ F. Gorriarán

54'

O. Herrera↳ M. Flores

57'

Édgar Méndez← B. Samudio

57'

A. Andrade← D. Gómez

59'

M. Flores

60'

S. Córdova← O. Herrera

62'

M. Flores↳ J. Garza

65'

R. Cortéz← J. Paradela

65'

J. Rodríguez← E. Martínez

68'

J. Purata← E. Tercero

69'

M. Flores↳ F. Gorriarán

73'

A. Andrade↳ Édgar Méndez

74'

A. Colorado← R. Monreal

78'

J. Vigón← J. Brunetta

78'

84'

86'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TigresNecaxa

Overview

71%Possession29%

17Total Shots6

4Corners1

6Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots6

6On Target4

8Off Target1

3Blocked1

8Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

592Total Passes245

514Accurate Passes167

87%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4