Tigres UANL vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 139+ matches
Tigres UANL53%
Necaxa23%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Tigres UANL creates 62% more chances
Season form · 159 home / 139 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes55
- No45
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tigres UANL ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 159 matches
Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tigres UANL attack 1.82 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77
Necaxa attack 1.27 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Tigres UANL at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
LeonTigres UANL
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
Club AmericaNecaxa
Pachuca
Club Tijuana
Toluca
Puebla
Santos Laguna
Lobos Buap
Atlas
Guadalajara Chivas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Monarcas
Club Queretaro
VeracruzCruz AzulClub AmericaU.N.A.M. - PumasSantos LagunaMonterreyTigres UANLTolucaClub QueretaroMonarcasPachucaGuadalajara ChivasPueblaLobos BuapLeonClub TijuanaNecaxaAtlasVeracruzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Tigres UANL host Necaxa on Sunday, 9 October 2022 at 00:00. The match is part of the Liga MX 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs Necaxa
Tigres UANL beat Necaxa 2-0 in Liga MX on October 9, 2022.
Goals: A. Gignac (60', 73').
Tigres UANL controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 11.
The match was played at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León in San Nicolás de los Garza.