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Tigres UANL vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Necaxa
Necaxa
10/4/2021Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Tigres UANL53%
×Draw23%
Necaxa23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
1.77
Necaxa
1.09

Tigres UANL creates 62% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 139 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.82
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
77%
Tigres UANL or Necaxa
77%
Draw or Necaxa
47%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
30%
Necaxa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
83%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
53%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
26%
Necaxa 1+ goals
66%
Necaxa 2+ goals
30%
Necaxa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
69%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 159 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.82 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Necaxa attack 1.27 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
53%
level
23%
Necaxa scores more
23%

Tigres UANL at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. MalagónNecaxaNecaxa · G
8.9

Match Events

56'
Raymundo Fulgencio
57'
B. García← F. Formiliano
59'
Juan Vigón
65'
J. Dueñas← J. Vigón
65'
L. Fernández← H. Ayala
66'
Luis Quiñones
67'
M. Quiroga← S. Bareiro
67'
A. Sepúlveda← R. Aguirre
68'
Alan Medina
77'
Alex Zendejas
77'
J. Escoboza← M. Salas
77'
A. Palma← L. García
84'
A. Garza← L. Quiñónes
90+5'
Luis Malagón

Possession

53%Tigres

Shots

19Tigres

Pass accuracy

51%Tigres

Statistics

TigresNecaxa
Overview
53%Possession47%
19Total Shots12
10Corners3
8Fouls16
Shots
19Total Shots12
8On Target4
8Off Target2
3Blocked6
7Inside Box8
12Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
440Total Passes405
368Accurate Passes331
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
4Saves8
Discipline
8Fouls16
3Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Liga MX: Tigres UANL 0–0 Necaxa

Tigres UANL and Necaxa drew 0-0 in Liga MX on October 4, 2021.

Tigres UANL controlled possession (53%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León in San Nicolás de los Garza.