Teplice 1–0 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

Teplice

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Baník Ostrava

M. Bilek 13' (pen)

11/22/2025

Czech Liga · Round 16AGC Arena Na Stinadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Teplice43%

×Draw26%

Baník Ostrava31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TepliceExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.21

Teplice

1.48

Baník Ostrava

1.21

Teplice creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.15

creates per match

1.11

1.30

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Teplice

1.15

Baník Ostrava

1.11

allows per match

Teplice

1.30

Baník Ostrava

1.80

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Teplice+0.18scores more

Baník Ostrava-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Teplice or draw

69%

Teplice or Baník Ostrava

74%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

57%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+

21%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals

77%

Teplice 2+ goals

43%

Teplice 3+ goals

19%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

70%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

34%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)

58%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 21 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.15 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Baník Ostrava attack 1.11 + Teplice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teplice scores more

43%

level

26%

Baník Ostrava scores more

31%

Teplice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Teplice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

D. Holec

Baník Ostrava · G

8.2

Match Events

6'

Lukáš Mareček

12'

Matej RizničPenalty confirmed

13'

M. BilekPenalty

46'

J. Pira← P. Jaron

46'

A. Munksgaard← E. Sehic

62'

64'

66'

72'

73'

73'

M. Kozak← J. Auta

73'

N. Audinis← L. Takacs

74'

83'

84'

90+6'

90+2'

90'

L. Krejci← M. Pulkrab

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TepliceBaník

Overview

33%Possession67%

7Total Shots19

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.63

0Corners7

13Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots19

3On Target1

3Off Target11

1Blocked7

5Inside Box10

2Outside Box9

Passing

33%Possession67%

270Total Passes557

189Accurate Passes452

70%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0

Czech Liga: Teplice 1–0 Baník Ostrava

Teplice beat Baník Ostrava 1-0 in Czech Liga on November 22, 2025.

Goals: M. Bilek (13' pen).

Baník Ostrava controlled possession (67%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Teplice.

Teplice vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Czech Liga: Teplice 1–0 Baník Ostrava