Baník Ostrava 2–0 Teplice: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Teplice

F. Kubala 85', 77'

2/22/2025

Czech Liga · Round 23Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Baník Ostrava47%

×Draw25%

Teplice28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchTeplice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.13

Baník Ostrava

1.54

Teplice

1.13

Baník Ostrava creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.61

creates per match

1.05

1.21

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

1.61

Teplice

1.05

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.21

Teplice

1.48

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Baník Ostrava-0.16scores less

Teplice+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Teplice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

72%

Baník Ostrava or Teplice

75%

Draw or Teplice

53%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

24%

Teplice wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

79%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

45%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

20%

Teplice 1+ goals

68%

Teplice 2+ goals

31%

Teplice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

63%

Teplice (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.21 · 20 matches

Teplice away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 1.61 + Teplice defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Teplice attack 1.05 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

47%

level

25%

Teplice scores more

28%

Baník Ostrava at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

F. Kubala

Baník Ostrava · F

8.9

Match Events

9'

M. Šín← Ewerton

29'

Jiri Boula

51'

R. Sedláček← N. Mićević

56'

R. Šiler← L. Krejčí

66'

F. Kubala← E. Prekop

66'

D. Látal← P. Kpozo

70'

L. Takács← D. Langhamer

70'

M. Radosta← F. Horský

75'

76'

77'

85'

90+3'

J. Juroška← D. Buchta

90+2'

M. Fukala← G. Kornezos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaníkTeplice

Overview

58%Possession42%

21Total Shots10

13Corners2

9Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots10

7On Target0

6Off Target6

8Blocked4

16Inside Box4

5Outside Box6

Passing

58%Possession42%

459Total Passes327

354Accurate Passes208

77%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice

Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 2-0 in Czech Liga on February 22, 2025.

Goals: F. Kubala (77', 85').

Baník Ostrava controlled possession (58%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Ostrava.

Baník Ostrava vs Teplice — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava vs Teplice