Teplice 2–3 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

Teplice

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Baník Ostrava

Y. Tsykalo 90+3'

A. Gning 34'

Ewerton 65'

K. Pojezný 52'

D. Buchta 37'

9/21/2024

Czech Liga · Round 9AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Teplice43%

×Draw26%

Baník Ostrava31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TepliceExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.21

Teplice

1.48

Baník Ostrava

1.21

Teplice creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

1.15

creates per match

1.11

1.30

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Teplice

1.15

Baník Ostrava

1.11

allows per match

Teplice

1.30

Baník Ostrava

1.80

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Teplice+0.18scores more

Baník Ostrava-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Teplice ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Teplice or draw

69%

Teplice or Baník Ostrava

74%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

57%

Winning margin

Teplice wins by 2+

21%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Teplice 1+ goals

77%

Teplice 2+ goals

43%

Teplice 3+ goals

19%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

70%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

34%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Teplice (draw refunded)

58%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Teplice at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 21 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.80 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Teplice attack 1.15 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Baník Ostrava attack 1.11 + Teplice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Teplice scores more

43%

level

26%

Baník Ostrava scores more

31%

Teplice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Teplice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Ewerton

Baník Ostrava · M

8.2

Match Events

23'

Y. Tsykalo← D. Danihel

34'

36'

37'

52'

54'

56'

59'

F. Havelka← D. Trubač

59'

F. Horský← J. Emmer

65'

Ewerton↳ J. Boula

74'

J. Klíma← A. Tanko

75'

R. Čerepkai← Mohamed Yasser

75'

R. Sedláček← L. Mareček

82'

D. Holzer← D. Buchta

83'

Jiří Klíma

88'

M. Frydrych← M. Šín

90+3'

Y. Tsykalo↳ R. Sedláček

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TepliceBaník

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots12

4Corners7

9Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots12

7On Target5

4Off Target5

0Blocked2

9Inside Box9

2Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

286Total Passes461

196Accurate Passes374

69%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0