Baník Ostrava 1–1 Teplice: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Teplice

D. Lischka 22'

M. Bilek 84' (pen)

9/17/2025

Czech Liga · Round 2Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Baník Ostrava47%

×Draw25%

Teplice28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchTeplice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.13

Baník Ostrava

1.54

Teplice

1.13

Baník Ostrava creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.61

creates per match

1.05

1.21

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

1.61

Teplice

1.05

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.21

Teplice

1.48

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Baník Ostrava-0.16scores less

Teplice+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Teplice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

72%

Baník Ostrava or Teplice

75%

Draw or Teplice

53%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

24%

Teplice wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

79%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

45%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

20%

Teplice 1+ goals

68%

Teplice 2+ goals

31%

Teplice 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

63%

Teplice (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.21 · 20 matches

Teplice away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 1.61 + Teplice defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Teplice attack 1.05 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

47%

level

25%

Teplice scores more

28%

Baník Ostrava at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

D. Lischka

Baník Ostrava · D

7.9

Match Events

22'

D. Lischka↳ G. Kornezos

25'

C. Tiehi← J. Boula

25'

D. Buchta← T. Rigo

25'

M. Chalus← G. Kornezos

25'

C. Frydek← M. Sin

25'

Y. Tsykalo← M. Pulkrab

62'

M. Naprstek← D. Trubac

62'

J. Auta← L. Krejci

71'

John Auta

71'

D. Latal← D. Owusu

74'

J. Svanda← M. Radosta

74'

M. Kozak←

76'

David Buchta

81'

L. Almasi← T. Zlatohlavek

84'

M. BilekPenalty

87'

D. Holzer← P. Kpozo

87'

M. Rusnak← A. Munksgaard

87'

L. Marecek← M. Bilek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaníkTeplice

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots7

7Corners4

20Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots7

7On Target5

1Off Target2

7Blocked0

13Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

370Total Passes367

268Accurate Passes270

72%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

20Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5