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Telstar vs NAC Breda — Eredivisie 2018

Telstar
Telstar
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
2/27/2026EredivisieEredivisie · Round 25BUKO Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Telstar55%
×Draw22%
NAC Breda24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
2.01
NAC Breda
1.26

Telstar creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

Telstar
1.84
NAC Breda
0.93

allows per match

Telstar
1.58
NAC Breda
2.18

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
76%
Telstar or NAC Breda
78%
Draw or NAC Breda
45%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
32%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
87%
Telstar 2+ goals
59%
Telstar 3+ goals
32%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
72%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
36%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
70%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.84 + NAC Breda defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.01

NAC Breda attack 0.93 + Telstar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Telstar scores more
55%
level
22%
NAC Breda scores more
24%

Telstar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Telstar 3–0 NAC Breda

Telstar beat NAC Breda 3-0 in Eredivisie on February 27, 2026.

The match was played at BUKO Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.