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NAC Breda vs Telstar — Eredivisie 2018

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Telstar
Telstar
12/20/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Round 17Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

NAC Breda39%
×Draw26%
Telstar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.35
Telstar
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 20 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.31
Telstar
1.10

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.46
Telstar
1.40

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
65%
NAC Breda or Telstar
74%
Draw or Telstar
61%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
18%
Telstar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
74%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
39%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
15%
Telstar 1+ goals
72%
Telstar 2+ goals
37%
Telstar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
52%
Telstar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.31 + Telstar defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Telstar attack 1.10 + NAC Breda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NAC Breda scores more
39%
level
26%
Telstar scores more
35%

NAC Breda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: NAC Breda 0–1 Telstar

Telstar beat NAC Breda 1-0 in Eredivisie on December 20, 2025.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.