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NAC Breda vs Telstar — Eerste Divisie 2018

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Telstar
Telstar
10/20/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 11Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

NAC Breda52%
×Draw24%
Telstar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.75
Telstar
1.13

NAC Breda creates 55% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 130 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.80
Telstar
1.18

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.08
Telstar
1.69

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par
Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Telstar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
75%
NAC Breda or Telstar
76%
Draw or Telstar
48%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
28%
Telstar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
83%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
52%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
25%
Telstar 1+ goals
68%
Telstar 2+ goals
31%
Telstar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
68%
Telstar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.80 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Telstar attack 1.18 + NAC Breda defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

NAC Breda scores more
52%
level
24%
Telstar scores more
25%

NAC Breda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: NAC Breda 3–1 Telstar

NAC Breda beat Telstar 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.