Telstar 2–1 NAC Breda: Result & Stats

Telstar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

NAC Breda

5/19/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 38BUKO Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Telstar37%

×Draw24%

NAC Breda39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TelstarExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.56

Telstar

1.52

NAC Breda

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 129 home / 90 away

1.52

creates per match

1.62

1.50

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Telstar

1.52

NAC Breda

1.62

allows per match

Telstar

1.50

NAC Breda

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par

NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Telstar or draw

61%

Telstar or NAC Breda

76%

Draw or NAC Breda

63%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+

18%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals

78%

Telstar 2+ goals

45%

Telstar 3+ goals

20%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

79%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

46%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)

49%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.50 · 129 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.52 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + Telstar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Telstar scores more

37%

level

24%

NAC Breda scores more

39%

NAC Breda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff