Tekstilshchik 1–1 Dinamo Bryansk: Result & Stats

Tekstilshchik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Bryansk

3/2/2024

League #1064 · Spring Season Silver - 1Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tekstilshchik55%

×Draw30%

Dinamo Bryansk15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TekstilshchikExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.50

Tekstilshchik

1.25

Dinamo Bryansk

0.50

Tekstilshchik creates 150% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.67

0.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tekstilshchik

1.50

Dinamo Bryansk

0.67

allows per match

Tekstilshchik

0.33

Dinamo Bryansk

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw

85%

Tekstilshchik or Dinamo Bryansk

70%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

45%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

26%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

71%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

36%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

13%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

39%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

9%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

79%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 1.50 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.67 + Tekstilshchik defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more

55%

level

30%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

15%

Tekstilshchik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff