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Tekstilshchik vs Dinamo Bryansk — First League 2026

Tekstilshchik
Tekstilshchik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
3/14/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Stadion Tekstilshchik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tekstilshchik43%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Bryansk29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tekstilshchik
1.33
Dinamo Bryansk
1.05

Tekstilshchik creates 27% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 21 away

creates per match

Tekstilshchik
0.96
Dinamo Bryansk
0.48

allows per match

Tekstilshchik
1.62
Dinamo Bryansk
1.71

finishing

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tekstilshchik ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tekstilshchik or draw
71%
Tekstilshchik or Dinamo Bryansk
73%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
57%

Winning margin

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+
20%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals
74%
Tekstilshchik 2+ goals
38%
Tekstilshchik 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
28%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)
59%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tekstilshchik at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.62 · 53 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tekstilshchik attack 0.96 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.33

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.48 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tekstilshchik scores more
43%
level
27%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
29%

Tekstilshchik at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tekstilshchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tekstilshchik 1–0 Dinamo Bryansk

Tekstilshchik beat Dinamo Bryansk 1-0 in First League on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Tekstilshchik in Ivanovo.