Dinamo Bryansk 1–0 Tekstilshchik: Result & Stats

Dinamo Bryansk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tekstilshchik

N. Maraev 86'

9/19/2020

First League · Round 10Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk41%

×Draw29%

Tekstilshchik30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo BryanskExpected goals in this matchTekstilshchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.99

Dinamo Bryansk

1.21

Tekstilshchik

0.99

Dinamo Bryansk creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 53 away

0.71

creates per match

0.68

1.29

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk

0.71

Tekstilshchik

0.68

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk

1.29

Tekstilshchik

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Tekstilshchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Tekstilshchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw

70%

Dinamo Bryansk or Tekstilshchik

71%

Draw or Tekstilshchik

59%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

18%

Tekstilshchik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

70%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

34%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

12%

Tekstilshchik 1+ goals

63%

Tekstilshchik 2+ goals

26%

Tekstilshchik 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

58%

Tekstilshchik (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

Tekstilshchik away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 0.71 + Tekstilshchik defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tekstilshchik attack 0.68 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

41%

level

29%

Tekstilshchik scores more

30%

Dinamo Bryansk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

16'

21'

26'

45'

65'

E. Marichev← M. Batov

67'

A. Goryushkin← I. Moseychuk

69'

Pavel Baranov

72'

A. Tsiberkin← D. Pikatov

74'

M. Sidorov← A. Ageev

81'

N. Maraev← D. Agureev

83'

Khazyr Appaev

84'

Danil Luppa

84'

A. Mukhametzyanov← M. Bachinskiy

86'

Vladislav Sysuev

86'

N. Maraev

90+2'

A. Novikov← P. Baranov

Dinamo4-1-4-1

Tekstilshchik4-3-3

71

▼

Bachinski

76

▼

Ageev

14

Appaev

69

▼

Moseychuk

8

Solodkov

21

▼

10

95

88

17

1

1

86

3

14

21

31

17

▼

Agureev

8

▼

Baranov

20

▼

Pikatov

10

Drogunov

23

Shebanov

Manager: A. Gorbachev

72'▲A. Tsiberkin←▼D. Pikatov

81'▲N. Maraev←▼D. Agureev

90+2'▲A. Novikov←▼P. Baranov

Dinamo Bryansk substitutes

88Tsiberkin9Maraev15Novikov16Pikatov30Pazin95Vambolt19Medvedev

Manager: S. Pavlov

65'▲E. Marichev←▼M. Batov

67'▲A. Goryushkin←▼I. Moseychuk

74'▲M. Sidorov←▼A. Ageev

84'▲A. Mukhametzyanov←▼M. Bachinskiy

Tekstilshchik substitutes

22Marichev7Goryushkin11Sidorov18Mukhametzyanov16Kiselev37Shlenkin55Morozov

First League: Dinamo Bryansk 1–0 Tekstilshchik

Dinamo Bryansk beat Tekstilshchik 1-0 in First League on September 19, 2020.

Goals: N. Maraev (86').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.

Dinamo Bryansk vs Tekstilshchik — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Dinamo Bryansk 1–0 Tekstilshchik