Tecnico Universitario 4–0 Gualaceo SC

Tecnico Universitario

FT

4 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Gualaceo SC

W. Cevallos 45+1'

A. Bolaños 33', 26'

J. Blanco 30'

9/3/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 5Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tecnico Universitario51%

×Draw26%

Gualaceo SC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tecnico UniversitarioExpected goals in this matchGualaceo SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.92

Tecnico Universitario

1.51

Gualaceo SC

0.92

Tecnico Universitario creates 64% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 30 away

1.22

creates per match

0.60

1.23

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.22

Gualaceo SC

0.60

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario

1.23

Gualaceo SC

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Gualaceo SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw

77%

Tecnico Universitario or Gualaceo SC

74%

Draw or Gualaceo SC

49%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

26%

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

78%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

44%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

19%

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

60%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

23%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

69%

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.23 · 129 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.22 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.51

Gualaceo SC attack 0.60 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more

51%

level

26%

Gualaceo SC scores more

23%

Tecnico Universitario at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

W. Cevallos

Tecnico Universitario · M

8.6

Match Events

14'

15'

25'

26'

30'

J. Blanco↳ W. Cevallos

33'

A. Bolaños↳ A. Muñoz

37'

Steven Tapiero

43'

Ousmane N’Dong

45+1'

Y. Filigrana← J. Blanco

45+1'

W. Cevallos

46'

J. Jiménez← S. Tapiero

46'

T. Minda← H. Patta

46'

Y. Rodríguez← H. Quiñónez

46'

D. Enríquez← J. Vergés

46'

J. Carrión← J. Preciado

53'

Jean Carrion

54'

Willian Cevallos

63'

L. Estupiñán← A. Muñoz

63'

O. Mejía← W. Cevallos

74'

E. Rodríguez← M. Medranda

74'

A. Calle← V. Angulo

81'

Yardely Rodriguez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TecnicoGualaceo

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots6

8Corners1

21Fouls8

Shots

20Total Shots6

13On Target3

2Off Target3

5Blocked0

9Inside Box2

11Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

426Total Passes264

369Accurate Passes188

87%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves9

Discipline

21Fouls8

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1