Gualaceo SC 1–1 Tecnico Universitario

Gualaceo SC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tecnico Universitario

4/8/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 5Estadio Municipal Jorge Andrade Cantos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Gualaceo SC39%

×Draw27%

Tecnico Universitario34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualaceo SCExpected goals in this matchTecnico Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.18

Gualaceo SC

1.29

Tecnico Universitario

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 127 away

1.20

creates per match

0.86

1.50

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Gualaceo SC

1.20

Tecnico Universitario

0.86

allows per match

Gualaceo SC

1.50

Tecnico Universitario

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Tecnico Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw

66%

Gualaceo SC or Tecnico Universitario

73%

Draw or Tecnico Universitario

61%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

17%

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

72%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

37%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

14%

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

69%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

33%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

54%

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.20 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tecnico Universitario attack 0.86 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more

39%

level

27%

Tecnico Universitario scores more

34%

Gualaceo SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff