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Tecnico Universitario vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro 2026

Tecnico Universitario
Tecnico Universitario
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
L. Estupiñán 37'
G. Alles 71'
4/9/2022Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 7Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tecnico Universitario51%
×Draw26%
Gualaceo SC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tecnico Universitario
1.51
Gualaceo SC
0.92

Tecnico Universitario creates 64% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.22
Gualaceo SC
0.60

allows per match

Tecnico Universitario
1.23
Gualaceo SC
1.80

finishing

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tecnico Universitario ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tecnico Universitario or draw
77%
Tecnico Universitario or Gualaceo SC
74%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
49%

Winning margin

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+
26%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals
78%
Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals
44%
Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals
19%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
60%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
23%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)
69%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tecnico Universitario at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.23 · 129 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.22 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.51

Gualaceo SC attack 0.60 + Tecnico Universitario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tecnico Universitario scores more
51%
level
26%
Gualaceo SC scores more
23%

Tecnico Universitario at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tecnico Universitario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Gerardo Gordillo
31'
G. Alles← P. Gómez
37'
L. Estupiñán
46'
H. Lino← D. Quintero
52'
Henry Patta
53'
Mario Rizotto
54'
Carlos Arboleda
64'
E. Rodríguez← A. Villalva
71'
G. Alles↳ J. Vergés
74'
Oscar Sainz
80'
T. Gutiérrez← J. Blanco
81'
O. Quintero← L. Estupiñán
86'
Jorge Gongora
88'
Enson Rodriguez
88'
C. Tutalchá← C. Arboleda
90+5'
C. González← J. Preciado

Statistics

TecnicoGualaceo
Overview
2Corners4
Discipline
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0

Liga Pro: Tecnico Universitario 1–1 Gualaceo SC

Tecnico Universitario and Gualaceo SC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on April 9, 2022.

Goals: L. Estupiñán (37'), G. Alles (71').

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.