Gualaceo SC 3–0 Tecnico Universitario

Gualaceo SC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Tecnico Universitario

R. Valarezo 29', 17'

N. Guerrero 20'

10/15/2017

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 36Estadio Gerardo León Pozo (Gualaceo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Gualaceo SC51%

×Draw25%

Tecnico Universitario24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gualaceo SCExpected goals in this matchTecnico Universitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.05

Gualaceo SC

1.65

Tecnico Universitario

1.05

Gualaceo SC creates 57% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 14 away

1.23

creates per match

1.29

0.81

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Gualaceo SC

1.23

Tecnico Universitario

1.29

allows per match

Gualaceo SC

0.81

Tecnico Universitario

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Tecnico Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Tecnico Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw

76%

Gualaceo SC or Tecnico Universitario

75%

Draw or Tecnico Universitario

49%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

27%

Tecnico Universitario wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

81%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

49%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

23%

Tecnico Universitario 1+ goals

65%

Tecnico Universitario 2+ goals

28%

Tecnico Universitario 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

68%

Tecnico Universitario (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.81 · 120 matches

Tecnico Universitario away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.23 + Tecnico Universitario defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tecnico Universitario attack 1.29 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more

51%

level

25%

Tecnico Universitario scores more

24%

Gualaceo SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

R. Valarezo

20'

N. Guerrero

29'

R. Valarezo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff