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Tanzania Prisons vs JKT Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
O. Mkomola 89'
J. Juma 77'
O. Mwansanga 50'
J. Elifadhili 42' (OG)
M. Bakari 11'
4/18/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 27Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Tanzania Prisons38%
×Draw30%
JKT Tanzania32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tanzania Prisons
1.10
JKT Tanzania
0.99

Tanzania Prisons creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Tanzania Prisons
0.97
JKT Tanzania
0.95

allows per match

Tanzania Prisons
1.03
JKT Tanzania
1.23

finishing

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par
JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tanzania Prisons ↓

JKT Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tanzania Prisons or draw
68%
Tanzania Prisons or JKT Tanzania
70%
Draw or JKT Tanzania
62%

Winning margin

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
15%
JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
67%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
30%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
10%
JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
63%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
26%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
54%
JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tanzania Prisons at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.97 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

JKT Tanzania attack 0.95 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tanzania Prisons scores more
38%
level
30%
JKT Tanzania scores more
32%

Tanzania Prisons at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tanzania Prisons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Bakari
42'
J. ElifadhiliOwn goal
50'
O. Mwansanga
77'
J. Juma
89'
O. Mkomola

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Tanzania Prisons 3–2 JKT Tanzania

Tanzania Prisons beat JKT Tanzania 3-2 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Bakari (11'), J. Elifadhili (42' o.g.), O. Mwansanga (50'), J. Juma (77'), O. Mkomola (89').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.