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JKT Tanzania vs Tanzania Prisons — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tanzania Prisons
Tanzania Prisons
D. Lyanga 39'
S. Mbangula 46'
3/13/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 21Isamuhyo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

JKT Tanzania48%
×Draw30%
Tanzania Prisons22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JKT Tanzania
1.24
Tanzania Prisons
0.73

JKT Tanzania creates 70% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

creates per match

JKT Tanzania
0.96
Tanzania Prisons
0.64

allows per match

JKT Tanzania
0.81
Tanzania Prisons
1.52

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par
Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Tanzania Prisons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw
78%
JKT Tanzania or Tanzania Prisons
70%
Draw or Tanzania Prisons
52%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
22%
Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
71%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
35%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
13%
Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals
52%
Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals
17%
Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
69%
Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 0.96, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 0.96 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.24

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.64 + JKT Tanzania defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more
48%
level
30%
Tanzania Prisons scores more
22%

JKT Tanzania at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
D. Lyanga
46'
S. Mbangula

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JKT Tanzania 1 – 1 Tanzania Prisons

JKT Tanzania and Tanzania Prisons drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on March 13, 2024.

Goals: D. Lyanga (39'), S. Mbangula (46').

The match was played at Isamuhyo Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.