JKT Tanzania 1–0 Tanzania Prisons: Result & Stats

JKT Tanzania

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tanzania Prisons

H. Kapalata 2'

11/24/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 12Isamuhyo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

JKT Tanzania50%

×Draw29%

Tanzania Prisons21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JKT TanzaniaExpected goals in this matchTanzania Prisons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.75

JKT Tanzania

1.31

Tanzania Prisons

0.75

JKT Tanzania creates 75% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

1.04

creates per match

0.66

0.84

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

JKT Tanzania

1.04

Tanzania Prisons

0.66

allows per match

JKT Tanzania

0.84

Tanzania Prisons

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Tanzania Prisons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw

79%

JKT Tanzania or Tanzania Prisons

71%

Draw or Tanzania Prisons

50%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+

24%

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals

73%

JKT Tanzania 2+ goals

38%

JKT Tanzania 3+ goals

14%

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

53%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

17%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)

70%

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 25 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 1.04 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.66 + JKT Tanzania defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more

50%

level

29%

Tanzania Prisons scores more

21%

JKT Tanzania at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

H. Kapalata

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff