JKT Tanzania 0–1 Tanzania Prisons: Result & Stats

JKT Tanzania

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tanzania Prisons

G. Mpole 45' (pen)

6/18/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 27Isamuhyo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

JKT Tanzania42%

×Draw29%

Tanzania Prisons29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JKT TanzaniaExpected goals in this matchTanzania Prisons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.95

JKT Tanzania

1.20

Tanzania Prisons

0.95

JKT Tanzania creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

0.92

creates per match

0.89

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

JKT Tanzania

0.92

Tanzania Prisons

0.89

allows per match

JKT Tanzania

1.00

Tanzania Prisons

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JKT Tanzania ↓

Tanzania Prisons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

JKT Tanzania or draw

71%

JKT Tanzania or Tanzania Prisons

71%

Draw or Tanzania Prisons

58%

Winning margin

JKT Tanzania wins by 2+

18%

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

JKT Tanzania 1+ goals

70%

JKT Tanzania 2+ goals

34%

JKT Tanzania 3+ goals

12%

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

61%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

25%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)

59%

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JKT Tanzania at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JKT Tanzania attack 0.92 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.89 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

JKT Tanzania scores more

42%

level

29%

Tanzania Prisons scores more

29%

JKT Tanzania at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "JKT Tanzania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

L. Makame

44'

M. Bakari

45'

G. MpolePenalty

46'

H. Chanongo← S. Ibrahim

52'

K. Mfaume

55'

H. Kapalata← L. Makame

55'

A. Josiah← N. Maguru

60'

V. Kusengama

60'

A. Josiah

65'

A. Kilemile← S. Roony

67'

M. Mhilu← K. Sengati

70'

73'

74'

G. Matiko← M. Bakari

80'

M. Mutinda← A. Masoud

86'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

JKTTanzania

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots5

6Corners0

Shots

10Total Shots5

3On Target3

7Off Target2

0Blocked0

Passing

61%Possession39%

Discipline

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0