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Talleres Cordoba vs River Plate — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
River Plate
River Plateadvanced
P. Díaz 86'
8/15/2024CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Talleres Cordoba41%
×Draw28%
River Plate31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talleres Cordoba
1.26
River Plate
1.07

Talleres Cordoba creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 35 away

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba
1.21
River Plate
1.43

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba
0.71
River Plate
1.31

finishing

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par
River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw
69%
Talleres Cordoba or River Plate
72%
Draw or River Plate
59%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
18%
River Plate wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
72%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
36%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
13%
River Plate 1+ goals
66%
River Plate 2+ goals
29%
River Plate 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
56%
River Plate (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

River Plate away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.21 + River Plate defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

River Plate attack 1.43 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more
41%
level
28%
River Plate scores more
31%

Talleres Cordoba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
P. DíazRiver PlateRiver Plate · D
8.2

Match Events

19'
Matías Catalán
33'
R. Ruíz Rodríguez← A. Martínez
45'
Paulo Díaz
46'
B. Riveros← M. Portillo
50'
Claudio Echeverri
57'
I. Fernández← F. Mastantuono
57'
M. Lanzini← C. Echeverri
60'
Lucas Suárez
63'
U. Ortegoza← B. Barticciotto
63'
C. Tarragona← F. Girotti
65'
A. Ruberto← R. Aliendro
80'
P. Solari← A. Bareiro
82'
Santiago Simón
86'
P. Díaz↳ I. Fernández
90+3'
Matías Galarza

Possession

39%Talleres

Shots

4Talleres

Pass accuracy

47%Talleres

Statistics

TalleresRiver
Overview
39%Possession61%
4Total Shots8
0.13Expected Goals (xG)0.33
0Corners3
15Fouls14
Shots
4Total Shots8
1On Target3
2Off Target2
1Blocked3
2Inside Box6
2Outside Box2
Passing
39%Possession61%
327Total Passes509
236Accurate Passes418
72%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
0.13Goals Prevented0.13
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Talleres Cordoba 0–1 River Plate

River Plate beat Talleres Cordoba 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on August 15, 2024.

Goals: P. Díaz (86').

River Plate controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.