River Plate 2–1 Talleres Cordoba: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Talleres Cordoba

S. Simón 50'

M. Borja 34'

F. Girotti 69'

8/22/2024

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Round of 16Estadio Mâs Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

River Plate58%

×Draw23%

Talleres Cordoba19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchTalleres Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.90

River Plate

1.79

Talleres Cordoba

0.90

River Plate creates 99% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

2.13

creates per match

1.08

0.72

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

River Plate

2.13

Talleres Cordoba

1.08

allows per match

River Plate

0.72

Talleres Cordoba

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Plate+0.00on par

Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Talleres Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

81%

River Plate or Talleres Cordoba

77%

Draw or Talleres Cordoba

42%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

33%

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

83%

River Plate 2+ goals

53%

River Plate 3+ goals

26%

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

59%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

23%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

76%

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.72 · 32 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 2.13 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.79

Talleres Cordoba attack 1.08 + River Plate defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

River Plate scores more

58%

level

23%

Talleres Cordoba scores more

19%

River Plate at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Meza

River Plate · F

8.0

Match Events

34'

M. Borja↳ R. Aliendro

46'

R. Villagra← R. Aliendro

50'

S. Simón↳ M. Meza

52'

M. Esquivel← F. Moyano

53'

F. Girotti← B. Barticciotto

60'

Miguel Borja

64'

M. Galarza

64'

F. Colidio← F. Mastantuono

64'

C. Echeverri← S. Simón

68'

U. Ortegoza← M. Galarza

68'

R. Botta← S. Palacios

69'

F. Girotti↳ B. Riveros

72'

G. Benavidez

76'

I. Fernández← M. Kranevitter

76'

M. Portillo← J. Portilla

90+2'

A. Bareiro← M. Borja

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverTalleres

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots13

0.97Expected Goals (xG)1.13

5Corners7

17Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots13

5On Target3

1Off Target6

3Blocked4

8Inside Box8

1Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

361Total Passes400

279Accurate Passes316

77%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.29Goals Prevented0.29

Discipline

17Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2