River Plate 0–1 Talleres Cordoba: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Talleres Cordoba

F. Girotti 12'

9/29/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Mâs Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

River Plate55%

×Draw25%

Talleres Cordoba20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchTalleres Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.86

River Plate

1.61

Talleres Cordoba

0.86

River Plate creates 87% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 19 away

1.93

creates per match

0.96

0.77

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

River Plate

1.93

Talleres Cordoba

0.96

allows per match

River Plate

0.77

Talleres Cordoba

1.30

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

River Plate+0.02on par

Talleres Cordoba-0.01on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Talleres Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

80%

River Plate or Talleres Cordoba

75%

Draw or Talleres Cordoba

45%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

29%

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

80%

River Plate 2+ goals

48%

River Plate 3+ goals

22%

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals

58%

Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals

21%

Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

73%

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.77 · 22 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.30 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.93 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.96 + River Plate defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

River Plate scores more

55%

level

25%

Talleres Cordoba scores more

20%

River Plate at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

G. Herrera

Talleres Cordoba · G

8.6

Match Events

12'

37'

40'

45'

48'

52'

57'

F. Mastantuono← S. Simón

58'

Guido Herrera

58'

R. Villagra← M. Kranevitter

66'

P. Solari← F. Bustos

66'

C. Echeverri← M. Lanzini

68'

R. Ruíz Rodríguez← R. Botta

68'

B. Barticciotto← V. Depietri

72'

Matías Galarza

72'

C. Tarragona← F. Girotti

72'

M. Galarza← J. Portilla

79'

M. Casco← I. Fernández

84'

G. Albarracín← U. Ortegoza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverTalleres

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots8

2.07Expected Goals (xG)1.18

7Corners1

9Fouls16

Shots

23Total Shots8

7On Target3

6Off Target4

10Blocked1

11Inside Box4

12Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

565Total Passes331

459Accurate Passes230

81%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

0.74Goals Prevented0.74

Discipline

9Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1