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Talleres Cordoba vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
U. Ortegoza 65'
A. Schott 16'
4/5/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 12Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Talleres Cordoba42%
×Draw31%
Gimnasia L.P.26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talleres Cordoba
1.10
Gimnasia L.P.
0.80

Talleres Cordoba creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba
0.98
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba
0.71
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Talleres Cordoba-0.10scores less
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw
74%
Talleres Cordoba or Gimnasia L.P.
69%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
58%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
17%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
67%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
30%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
10%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
55%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
19%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
62%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.98 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more
42%
level
31%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
26%

Talleres Cordoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
S. FernandezTalleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba · D
8.5

Match Events

16'
A. Schott↳ E. Reynoso
40'
Facundo Di Biasi
58'
U. Ortegoza← M. Portillo
58'
S. Palacios← V. Depietri
60'
Martín Fernández
62'
Santiago FernandezPenalty confirmed
63'
Renzo Giampaoli
64'
B. Merlini← M. Fernandez
64'
A. Sosa← F. Corbalan
65'
U. Ortegoza
76'
M. Galarza← E. Reynoso
76'
F. Girotti← C. Tarragona
76'
N. Garayalde← F. Di Biasi
76'
L. Mamut← A. Piedrahita
81'
R. Botta← N. Bustos
90'
J. Villalba← R. Giampaoli

Possession

46%Talleres

Shots

15Talleres

Pass accuracy

48%Talleres

Statistics

TalleresGimnasia
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots18
9Corners5
6Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots18
6On Target0
7Off Target11
2Blocked7
10Inside Box10
5Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
361Total Passes401
271Accurate Passes324
75%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls15
0Yellow Cards3
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Talleres Cordoba vs Gimnasia L.P.

Talleres Cordoba beat Gimnasia L.P. 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 5, 2025.

Goals: A. Schott (16'), U. Ortegoza (65').

Gimnasia L.P. controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes in Cordoba.