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Gimnasia L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
B. Barticciotto 80'
12/8/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 26Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Gimnasia L.P.39%
×Draw29%
Talleres Cordoba32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnasia L.P.
1.17
Talleres Cordoba
1.02

Gimnasia L.P. creates 15% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.07
Talleres Cordoba
0.94

allows per match

Gimnasia L.P.
1.11
Talleres Cordoba
1.26

finishing

Gimnasia L.P.-0.24scores less
Talleres Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnasia L.P. ↓

Talleres Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gimnasia L.P. or draw
68%
Gimnasia L.P. or Talleres Cordoba
71%
Draw or Talleres Cordoba
61%

Winning margin

Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
17%
Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
69%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
33%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
11%
Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
64%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
27%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
55%
Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnasia L.P. at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

Talleres Cordoba away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnasia L.P. attack 1.07 + Talleres Cordoba defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.94 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gimnasia L.P. scores more
39%
level
29%
Talleres Cordoba scores more
32%

Gimnasia L.P. at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gimnasia L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
G. BenavídezTalleres CordobaTalleres Cordoba · D
7.9

Match Events

32'
Martín Fernández
33'
Y. Cabral← E. Martínez
40'
Rubén Botta
43'
Lucas Castro
44'
Matías Galarza
46'
M. Esquivel← R. Botta
63'
B. Riveros← A. Martínez
69'
Juan Portillo
70'
P. De Blasis← L. Castro
73'
Leandro Mamut
76'
B. Barticciotto← M. Galarza
76'
F. Girotti← C. Tarragona
80'
B. Barticciotto↳ M. Navarro
81'
A. Max← N. Garayalde
82'
S. Primante← M. Fernández
90'
U. Ortegoza← M. Galarza

Possession

49%Gimnasia

Shots

11Gimnasia

Pass accuracy

48%Gimnasia

Statistics

GimnasiaTalleres
Overview
49%Possession51%
11Total Shots10
0.41Expected Goals (xG)0.92
6Corners5
13Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots10
2On Target2
4Off Target3
5Blocked5
4Inside Box6
7Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
326Total Passes357
219Accurate Passes257
67%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
0.61Goals Prevented0.61
Discipline
13Fouls9
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Gimnasia L.P. vs Talleres Cordoba

Talleres Cordoba beat Gimnasia L.P. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on December 8, 2024.

Goals: B. Barticciotto (80').

Talleres Cordoba controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.