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Talleres Cordoba vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Talleres Cordoba
Talleres Cordoba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
G. Álvez 75'
M. Esquivel 22'
T. Muro 52'
10/23/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 27Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Talleres Cordoba42%
×Draw31%
Gimnasia L.P.26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Talleres Cordoba
1.10
Gimnasia L.P.
0.80

Talleres Cordoba creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Talleres Cordoba
0.98
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Talleres Cordoba
0.71
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Talleres Cordoba-0.10scores less
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Talleres Cordoba ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Talleres Cordoba or draw
74%
Talleres Cordoba or Gimnasia L.P.
69%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
58%

Winning margin

Talleres Cordoba wins by 2+
17%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Talleres Cordoba 1+ goals
67%
Talleres Cordoba 2+ goals
30%
Talleres Cordoba 3+ goals
10%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
55%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
19%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Talleres Cordoba (draw refunded)
62%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Talleres Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Talleres Cordoba attack 0.98 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Talleres Cordoba defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Talleres Cordoba scores more
42%
level
31%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
26%

Talleres Cordoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Talleres Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
T. MuroGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · M
7.2

Match Events

12'
Carlos Insaurralde
16'
D. Ortegoza← C. Oliva
22'
M. Esquivel↳ M. Godoy
34'
Leandro Espejo
35'
T. Muro← M. Insaurralde
35'
I. Miramon← B. Domínguez
40'
Ángelo Martino
52'
T. Muro↳ O. Piris
54'
E. Díaz← M. Esquivel
55'
M. Santos← L. Espejo
55'
R. Villagra← A. Franco
57'
Erik Ramírez
67'
A. Lescano← O. Piris
67'
R. Cecchini← E. Ramírez
69'
Rodrigo Villagra
71'
Julián Malatini
73'
F. Álvarez← M. Godoy
75'
G. Álvez↳ D. Ortegoza
83'
L. Contín← F. Soldano

Possession

53%Talleres

Shots

10Talleres

Pass accuracy

50%Talleres

Statistics

TalleresGimnasia
Overview
53%Possession47%
10Total Shots8
4Corners3
15Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots8
6On Target3
3Off Target3
1Blocked2
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
345Total Passes295
221Accurate Passes193
64%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls14
4Yellow Cards2
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Talleres Cordoba vs Gimnasia L.P.

Talleres Cordoba beat Gimnasia L.P. 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 23, 2022.

Goals: M. Esquivel (22'), T. Muro (52'), G. Álvez (75').

Talleres Cordoba controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.